Mortality Prediction of the CHA 2 DS 2-VASc Score, the HAS-BLED Score, and Their Combination in Anticoagulated Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Background and objectives

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased mortality, predictors of which are poorly characterized. We investigated the predictive power of the commonly used CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 years [doubled], diabetes, stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism [doubled], vascular disease [prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease, or aortic plaque], age 65-75 years, sex category [female]), the HAS-BLED score (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio [INR], elderly [age ≥ 65 years], drugs/alcohol concomitantly), and their combination for mortality in AF patients.


The PREvention oF thromboembolic events-European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation (PREFER in AF) was a prospective registry including AF patients across seven European countries. We used logistic regression to analyze the relationship between the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores and outcomes, including mortality, at one year. We evaluated the performance of logistic regression models by discrimination measures (C-index and DeLong test) and calibration measures (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), with bootstrap techniques for internal validation.


 In 5209 AF patients with complete information on both scores, average one-year mortality was 3.1%. We found strong gradients between stroke/systemic embolic events (SSE), major bleeding and-specifically-mortality for both CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores, with a similar C-statistic for event prediction. The predictive power of the models with both scores combined, removing overlapping components, was significantly enhanced (p < 0.01) compared to models including either CHA2DS2-VASc or HAS-BLED alone: for mortality, C-statistic: 0.740, compared to 0.707 for CHA2DS2-VASc or 0.646 for HAS-BLED alone. IDI analyses supported the significant improvement for the combined score model compared to separate score models for all outcomes.


Both the CHA2DS2-VASc and the HAS-BLED scores predict mortality similarly in patients with AF, and a combination of their components increases prediction significantly. Such combination may be useful for investigational and-possibly-also clinical purposes.

AuthorsD Morrone, S Kroep, F Ricci, G Renda, G Patti, P Kirchhof, L Chuang, B van Hout, R De Caterina
JournalJournal of clinical medicine
Therapeutic AreaCardiology
Service AreaReal-World Evidence
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